EU Agricultural outlook 2019-2030

This outlook report aims to serve as a baseline for policy and market analysis and evaluation. It is based on the existing policy framework and on expected macroeconomic trends.Under these assumptions, despite labour outflow(i.e. more workers leaving the agricultural sector than entering it), agriculture remains a key part of the fabric of the EU’s rural communities and the primary use of land. Due to competition fromother uses, to tal agricultural land use in the EU is expected to continue to decline, though at a slower pacethan in the past decade, to 178 million ha by 2030. Already high on average, EU yields will grow more slowly than in the past. Advances in seed selection, management and technology will improve farmers’ ability to integrate environmental policy requirements into production systems. Most of the EU’s produce will still be consumed domestically. Consumers in the EU and abroad will become more demanding about the food they consume, increasingly opting for local, organic or other certified products and shifting between food categories. With growing global demand and shifts in global trade flows, the EU will have opportunities to gain market shares in some export markets (e.g.dairy products) while facing increased competition in others (e.g. cereals).